Newsletter Archive


Six years after the financial crisis the US economy is approaching full employement. Historically, low unemployment has been a warning sign for the equity and bond market.

The US unemployment rate is now at 5.1 percent, the lowest in seven years. There is a good chance that it will fall below five per cent this winter.

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The world is getting increasingly chaotic and the risk of political black swans is heightening. Developments in Saudi Arabia and the South China Sea should be monitored closely.

King Salman of Saudi Arabia is facing major challenges. Economically, the Kingdom has been hit hard by the drop in oil prices. The government must tap foreign exchange reserves by $12 billion each month.

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The world economy has gone through a revolving crisis over the last decade. It first hit the United States in 2008 and then moved to the Eurozone in 2011. Now China, Russia and Brazil are going through rough weather.

The global recovery after the great financial crisis has so far been disappointing. One important reason is that the world economy during this period has generally gone on only two out of three cylinders.

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It is still produced more crude oil than it is consumed in the world, but the second derivative of the oil market is now clearly positive. Consumption accelerates, while the US shale oil production falls.

The International Energy Agency, IEA, estimated in February that the world oil consumption would increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2015. Six months later, this figure almost doubled to an impressive 1.7 million barrels per day.

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Oslo Stock Exchange has fallen from second to last place in the ranking of the most liquid stock exchanges in Scandinavia, while Copenhagen is emerging as the new star.

Stockholm is still the financial capital of Scandinavia. The turnover in the Swedish stock market is as big as the rest of the region combined.

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