Newsletter Archive


The US labor market is approaching its capacity ceiling at the same time as the global savings surplus is decreasing. The risk of rising government bond yields is undervalued.

Shorting Japanese government bonds has been systematically unprofitable for the past thirty years. This has given the strategy the ominous nickname "the widow-maker trade".

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The low-carbon economy poses a growing threat to Norway's oil wealth. Fish farmers can look forward to another super-profitable year, while the prospects for the steel industry and bulk shipping are grim.

While the oil price will probably be under pressure in the first half-year, it should head to 50+ by the end of 2016. This is manifested by the fact that the shale oil production is declining while demand is developing positively.

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Oil prices are 17 percent down so far in December, the credit markets are under severe pressure and interest rates have risen in the US for the first time in 10 years. 

The cause of the falling oil price is the fruitless OPEC meeting. The cartel now has no official quotas. Therefore, everyone is free to pump as much as they want.

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The equity is in reality lost in almost all steel owning Norwegian offshore companies. The shares are traded as options, whereas the bonds have become the new shares.

This month OPEC held a meeting that ended in disarray. The cartel could not even agree on what the official quota should be going forward, and this sent the oil price into a downward spiral.

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All world leaders are currently at the climate summit in Paris. For the next ten years low-carbon economy will be facing a boom, while the livelihood of carbon-intensive industry is increasingly in danger.

The climate summit in Paris will not be as unsuccessful as the summit in Copenhagen six years ago. Despite the fact that the Paris summit will not achieve a binding agreement, the meeting is a success even before it has started.

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