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Newsletter Archive

30.03.2015

With the exception of salmon raw material and energy markets have gone from shortages and high prices to abundance and price wars during the past few years. What can we expect going forward?

Fiords where salmon can be produced are scarce. Therefore supply has not managed to keep pace with demand and the price of farmed salmon is today a function of the pain threshold of consumers rather than production costs.

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23.03.2015

Pessimism is overwhelming in the crude oil market despite that a trend change is imminent. Let’s have a look at the winners and losers in the energy sector going forward.

Oil optimists are few and far between. This is evident, among other things, by an abnormally strong interest in put options on oil prices on the major commodity exchanges.

The atmosphere is not much better in the stock market where oil related stocks are shunned like the plague and institutional investors are underweighting the industry.

 

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17.03.2015

Because of great potential for earnings growth European equities are attractive despite the fact that P/E multiples are at its highest level in ten years.

We have looked closely at the corporate profit trends in the West. On Wall Street analysts have downgraded expected earnings for the coming twelve months EPS by nearly ten percent this winter.

The decrease is mainly due to reduced profits in the oil industry. However the super-strong dollar must also take some of the blame.

 

Bottomed-out

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09.03.2015

Since the mid-80s academic studies demonstrated that momentum strategies work in several western stock markets. Does this effect exist on the Oslo exchange also?

Momentum means that stocks that have done well over the last 6-12 months, often continue to do well in the following month.

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02.03.2015

What is Saudi Arabia's next move in the oil market? An analysis of what is in the best interest of the country can give us an indication.

There are many conspiracy theories about why Saudi Arabia let the oil price collapse this winter. However, we believe that the royal family controls the oil policy with how to bring the most money in to the treasury over time in mind.

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